Today's economic calendar is relatively light, with no major events scheduled in the European session. This has led to a rather quiet trading environment, with prices remaining within a defined range as we approach the US session. The focus remains on the ongoing ceasefire between the US and Iran, which is expected to hold ahead of tomorrow's negotiations in Islamabad. While there was some noise yesterday, the ceasefire appears to be holding, and both parties are likely to maintain a cautious approach to avoid any misunderstandings until the negotiations conclude.
In the American session, the economic data releases are expected to have a muted impact. The final US Q4 GDP data, which is already in the past, is unlikely to attract much attention. The US PCE price index and the US Jobless Claims data are also expected to have a limited impact, with the market focusing more on the broader implications of a potential lasting US-Iran peace deal. The US PCE Y/Y is projected to remain stable at 2.8%, while the Core PCE Y/Y is expected to slightly decrease to 3.0%. These figures, being from February, are likely to be met with a muted market reaction.
The Initial Claims data, however, could be a potential wildcard. With an expected figure of 210K, it would need to be significantly lower to trigger growth fears. Even then, the market's reaction is likely to be short-lived due to the positive sentiment surrounding the US-Iran negotiations. The Continuing Claims data is also expected to remain stable, with a projection of 1828K.
In terms of central bank speakers, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Schlegel and the European Central Bank (ECB) member Sleijpen are scheduled to speak. Both are known for their neutral stance and voting records, so their remarks are unlikely to have a significant impact on market sentiment. However, their comments could provide some insight into the monetary policy outlook for these respective institutions.
In summary, today's economic calendar is relatively light, with the focus remaining on the US-Iran ceasefire and negotiations. The market's reaction to the economic data releases is expected to be muted, with the potential exception of the Initial Claims data. Central bank speakers are unlikely to have a major impact, but their comments could provide some interesting insights into the monetary policy outlook.
